在全球经济不确定因素增多的背景下，恒昌首届“88财商节”期间，特别发布了《2022下半年宏观经济展望及资产配置策略指引》。这份指引是恒昌持续提升投研能力的成果体现，为投资者提供了洞察经济趋势、把脉市场变化的重要工具。
《指引》首先回顾了2022年上半年的全球宏观经济走势和资本市场表现，并对世界主要经济体面临的机遇与挑战进行了深入阐述。预计，下半年全球消费增速将进一步回落，居民实际可支配收入减少，负债消费成本提高。全球经济将走向“低增长、高物价”困局。
对于中国经济，《指引》表示，在财政、货币政策等一揽子稳增长措施实施的情况下，有望充分发挥韧性足、潜力大、空间广的优势，将实现增速逐季回升，全年GDP增长保持在约4%合理区间。
投资机会方面，《指引》看好中国资产表现。在境内外经济运行周期和货币政策周期继续背离分化的大背景下，大类资产驱动力量存在明显分化。海外资产波动将围绕全球从“滞胀”转向衰退以及主要经济体货币政策收紧节奏展开，而境内资产波动则将围绕是否顺利企稳回升和市场主体能否走出资产负债表负反馈循环展开。
宗良博士在直播中解释说，可重点关注新能源、大健康、新消费四大领域结构性机会，其中新能源排到了首位。这是因为新能源作为绿色发展的重要组成部分，其技术创新速度快，对于应对气候变化具有巨大的潜力，同时也符合国家战略需求，是未来长期价值增长点。
尽管全球economic growth face many challenges, but the Chinese economy has shown more positive factors. The policy measures to stabilize growth will be implemented in the second half of the year, and the recovery of industrial chains and supply chains will continue to activate economic entities. Inflation is under control, and macro policies will continue to be relaxed.
Therefore, China's economy is expected to continue its steady recovery in the second half of 2022, with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 4.6% and a full-year GDP growth rate of around 4%. Compared with major economies such as Europe and America, which are facing multiple risks including inflation pressure and monetary tightening, China's economic resilience is evident.
In terms of asset allocation strategy for the second half of 2022, guidelines suggest that domestic stocks may outperform foreign markets due to their stronger fundamentals. The bond market is expected to experience a period of interest rate hikes globally but maintain a range-bound trend domestically due to continued accommodative monetary policies.
For commodity markets like oil, copper gold silver etc., there could be opportunities for structural changes based on real demand-supply shocks rather than just price fluctuations alone. For example: Oil prices are seen topping out; Copper prices may dip short-term before stabilizing; Gold prices could see downward pressure.
Finally for currencies like USD EUR GBP etc., any major shifts or uncertainties from central banks' actions or global geopolitical events would need careful monitoring as they can have significant impacts on investment decisions across different asset classes.
This comprehensive report provides valuable insights into both macro-economic trends & micro-market analysis while offering strategic guidance on how best investors should allocate resources within various sectors & assets in order not only protect capital but also maximize returns during these volatile times ahead!
标签： 基础地理
